Forecasting, when Modelling is not the only Choice - Forecasting Challenges(2 of 5)

Today I'll be looking at the challenges we face when forecasting. You need to find the right balance.

The impact on the service versus the impact of the cost is something that must always be taken in to consideration. A prime example of this is Cloud Computing, which has helped some organisations to find this right balance. Utilizing Cloud resources efficiently means knowing how much you are going to need and when, you still need to forecast your requirements in advance if you don’t want costs to spiral out of control.

Forecasting                      

Forecasting relies on:

· Proper technical and business data

· Proper business information - what is the business doing overall, is there growth, decline, what is new

· Valid technical and business assumptions 

· Ability to compare past activity

· Match needs vs. cost


Forecasting Scenarios

I like to put these in three different categories:

• Near term – 3 to 12 months

• Long term – 1 to 3 years, 1 to 5 years

• Environment changes

                   Downsizing Infrastructure
                      Right sizing Infrastructure
                          IT mergers and acquisitions

Where do we get the data?

Many organizations have a variety of platforms, there’s all types of data available.

• Data collected from various point tools or Capacity Management software.

• Past forecasts, enable you to get closer and closer to accuracy.

• Business users and owners

        May want to help

           May say “You’re the capacity team, you figure it out”


On Monday I'll be taking a look at Forecasting techniques. Why not join our Community and download my recorded webinar on this subject in the meantime http://www.metron-athene.com/_resources/index.html


Charles Johnson
Principal Consultant